Energy Outlook: October 2026

Welcome to the October 2026 edition of Simpson Grierson’s Energy Outlook, where our experts ask whether New Zealand has an energy gap, and what it means for investors, developers and market participants.

With the election less than three weeks away, every major party agrees New Zealand’s electricity system is under pressure. What they don’t agree on is the fix.

Our October Energy Outlook asks whether New Zealand has an energy gap. Our answer is yes, but it’s not a single gap. There’s a dry-year gap, with Transpower forecasting our winter energy margin could fall below the security standard by 2031, or as early as 2028. There’s a connection gap, as new generation and large new loads queue to get onto the networks. And there’s a cost gap, as higher power prices flow through to households, businesses and how offshore investors price New Zealand.

Here’s what’s inside this edition:

Election 2026: where the parties stand on solar, data centres and the gentailers, and where they differ on the fix
What the energy gap costs, who pays for it, and how offshore investors are responding
Fast-track consenting and RMA reform: the energy projects getting through, and what a change of government could mean
Network connections and pricing: why part of the energy gap sits in the wires
A project shows how distribution networks are helping bring new generation online: the Centralines and Lodestone Energy Hawke's Bay Solar Farm.

Whoever forms the next government, the investment decisions made in the next couple of years will go a long way to determining how wide the gap becomes. If any of the issues covered in this edition are relevant to your business or projects, we’d welcome the opportunity to talk.