As we move into the second half of 2025, the food and beverage sector continues to navigate a dynamic landscape shaped by strong global demand, regulatory change, and evolving market, economic and social conditions. In this update, we highlight key trends and recent news that may impact those in the F&B sector, and where opportunities may lie.

US government increases tariff on New Zealand goods to 15%

US President Donald Trump announced this month that tariffs on New Zealand goods have increased from 10% to 15%. The increase will have effects on not only the food and beverage sector, but exporters to the US more widely. The US was the second-largest importer of New Zealand goods last year, and New Zealand’s largest market for red meat. Beef + Lamb New Zealand chair Kate Acland said the increase places New Zealand farmers and exporters at a competitive disadvantage, especially to competitors such as Australia who were not subject to the tariff changes. However, with the US beef herd at an all-time low with a high demand for red meat products, those within the industry are optimistic that the demand from the US for beef and lamb will remain.

The wine industry is also likely to feel the effects of the increased tariffs, where the tariff on a bottle of New Zealand wine will increase from under 10c per bottle to around $1.10 per bottle in the US. The US is New Zealand’s largest market for exporting wine, worth about $750 million a year. NZ Winegrowers' advocacy general manager Sarah Wilson said it would be up to each business as to how these tariffs will be absorbed, but it may place the New Zealand wine sector at an unfair advantage to competitors.  

New Zealand primary exports set to hit record $60 billion – Ministry for Primary Industries 

New Zealand’s food and fibre sector is set up for record export growth, with the latest Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) report forecasting earnings to reach $59.9 billion by June 2025 ($3 billion higher than previously projected) and $65.7 billion by 2029. This increase is driven by global demand and favourable pricing across key markets, particularly in dairy (up 16% to $27 billion), meat and wool (up 8% to $12.3 billion), and horticulture (up 19% to $8.5 billion). Improved macroeconomic conditions, including easing inflation and lower interest rates, are also providing much-needed relief to producers. With dairy farms profiting from increased milk production, and strong contributions from kiwifruit, apples, forestry, and aquaculture, the sector remains at an incline despite global trade uncertainties. This presents both challenges and opportunities for stakeholders across the food and beverage supply chain.

Although great for farmers, the market conditions create increased prices for New Zealand consumers, seen in the price of butter spiking beyond $10.00 per 500 grams.

New grass-fed certification scheme aimed at China’s market

A new grass-fed certification scheme launched in June creates a major opportunity for New Zealand farmers to gain greater traction in China’s premium market. The scheme creates a definition for meat and dairy grass-fed products, giving those who meet the standard the opportunity to display a certification on their products. This certification allows them to be marketed worldwide and compete in premium international markets.

The grass-fed scheme came about after a visit to the China International Import Expo last year, where after discussions with the meat and dairy sectors, the government decided that a meat and dairy product certification was needed for New Zealand to stand out in the Chinese market.

Pak‘nSave supermarkets admit breaching Fair Trading Act with misleading prices, face millions in fines

In March, the Commerce Commission filed criminal charges against two North Island Pak’nSave supermarkets over potential fair trading offences, alleging that the Silverdale and Mill Street locations had engaged in misleading specials and inaccurate pricing.

At a hearing in the Auckland District Court, the two supermarkets pleaded guilty to a total of eleven charges but were remanded without plea on the remaining seven. With each charge carrying a maximum penalty of $600,000, the supermarket owners could be looking at multi-million-dollar penalties for their conduct. The supermarkets will be sentenced on 4 November.

When the charges were laid last year, Deputy Chair of the Commerce Commission Anne Callinan stated that the supermarkets were well-resourced and should invest in the time and effort to get pricing correct. She further stated that “the charges we’re filing against major supermarket brands are to remind all supermarket operators that we expect them to fix ongoing pricing accuracy issues and implement better processes to prevent issues like these in the future”.