M&A survey reveals offshore investment intentions at highest level since 2019; NZ emerges as safe haven

Simpson Grierson's Expanding Horizons 2025 survey shows unprecedented investor confidence amid global uncertainty

International investor confidence in New Zealand has reached its highest level since 2019, with nearly half (49%) of offshore investors considering an acquisition in the next 12 months, according to Simpson Grierson's latest Expanding Horizons report released today.

The seventh annual survey of 90 international investors who have recently invested in New Zealand reveals a striking increase in market sentiment, with 99% of respondents planning to invest in New Zealand within the next five years and 85% expecting M&A activity to increase over the coming year. 

James Hawes, Corporate Partner at Simpson Grierson says: “The clear view expressed by survey respondents is that they believe there is now value in New Zealand businesses and a strong prospect of growth in the economy. 

“Whether this is the result of specific actions by the Government and Reserve Bank or simply a reversal of the cycle, will be a matter for debate. 

“The data from this year’s survey certainly reveals a significant uptick in foreign investor sentiment, indicating a likely jump in activity as investors see value in New Zealand targets,” says James. 

Global uncertainty drives interest

A key finding from this year's report is that global market uncertainty has enhanced New Zealand's appeal as an investment destination, with 78% of respondents saying current global economic and geopolitical conditions have strengthened their intentions to invest locally.

“Although New Zealand's fortunes are closely tied to global trade, the response to this survey clearly indicates that the country is seen as a safe store of value when compared with other markets. 

“Part of this may simply be attributed to geographical remoteness, but part may be the result of the relative transparency of our economy,” James says. 

Market recovery expected

The report suggests New Zealand's M&A market is poised for solid recovery after several subdued years, with 85% of respondents anticipating a moderate increase in overall M&A activity in New Zealand in the next 12 months. This is an eight per cent increase in expectations from last year, when 79% predicted a moderate increase in activity.

James says the survey findings are consistent with a more optimistic mood in the M&A market over the past few months, as investors look for good value acquisition targets: “We’re seeing a trend away from more opportunistic, short-term acquisitions toward a more measured pipeline.”

Government reforms welcome

The survey reveals strong support for the Government's business-friendly approach, with 76% of respondents considering current policies supportive or very supportive of foreign investment. The proposed reform of the Overseas Investment Act has been well-received by investors, with 89% saying it will strengthen their intention to invest in New Zealand.

Tech sector leads the charge

Technology, Media and Telecommunications continues to dominate investor interest, with 73% ranking it as the most attractive sector by a large margin. This aligns with investors citing the opportunity to acquire new and advanced technology as a key factor in the attractiveness of New Zealand as an investment destination.

Favourable valuations have emerged as the top draw card for international investors, reflecting the challenges the local economy has faced and creating what many see as attractive entry points for offshore capital.

AI set to transform deal-making

The survey also revealed that artificial intelligence is poised to significantly impact how deals are executed, with 66% of respondents expecting AI to have a meaningful impact on their deal-making processes within the next 12 months. Risk assessment and scenario planning, financial modelling and valuation, and market research emerged as the areas where AI is expected to deliver the most improvement in the deal process.

James says: “It has been a tough year for our local economy with GDP contracting and inflation remaining persistent, but the 2026 outlook appears rosier: the flat local economy has created favourable investment conditions, meaning we’re expecting to see a return to growth.

“Notwithstanding recent global economic and geopolitical challenges, survey findings tell us that New Zealand maintains its global reputation as an open, politically stable and legally robust member of the Asia-Pacific group,” says James.